ARCTICONOMICS: the dilemma between Nordic wealth and Nordic values
The Arctic is rich in resources. But economics, not geology, will decide whether these resources are ever exploited.
Here is the paradox: The more stable, democratic, and open the world becomes, the less profitable it is to explore and extract Arctic resources. When trade flows freely and friendly nations offer abundant supply, global resource prices stay low. In that world, extracting resources in the Arctic, with its extreme costs, harsh conditions, and high risks, simply does not make financial sense.
But the more unstable, fragmented, and distrustful the world becomes, the more profitable Arctic resources become. When nations hoard resources, when supply chains break down, and when authoritarian regimes limit access, prices rise sharply. In that world, the Arctic becomes a valuable, even necessary, source of supply, despite its high costs.
Nordic countries care deeply about democracy, free trade, and environmental protection. But these very conditions make Arctic exploitation less profitable. In contrast, a fractured, unstable world would push resource prices up and make Arctic exploration economically attractive, but at the cost of the values Nordics cherish most.
This is the core of the Arctic dilemma:
- A stable world is good for democracy and the environment, but bad for Arctic business.
- An unstable world is good for Arctic business, but bad for democracy and the environment.
In this session, we will discuss:
- How global conditions shape the economic viability of the Arctic.
- What we can learn from the Norwegian case.
- How the Nordics must now navigate a future where their values and their economic opportunities pull in opposite directions.
Background
This session is hosted by FRONTTIER and supported by Nordic Innovation.
